Risk (Dan Gardner)

I found this a fascinating exploration of our inability to handle information and risk adequately in an age overloaded with data. This book describes some of the psycho-social research that has built understanding of the rules of thumb we use - the Example Rule, the Good-Bad Rule and the Rule of Typical Things. Coupled with the Confirmation Bias, this starts to explain why mass panics break out in localised areas over spurious data - for example the MMR vaccine in the UK and silicone implants in the US.

From the examples given, I feel much more able to explore statistics and challenge the conclusions being drawn, but this is probably untrue - an over-confidence not based on reality. Sadly, the research suggests we are all prone to errors of judgement based on "gut reaction", even when we have an understanding that we may behave in this way, and especially when in the company of others who believe the same. But the book does conclude that, despite all the scare stories, there has never been a better time to be alive... Well worth reading, just to open your mind to how others may be manipulating the information presented to you. And a PostScript - it seems that our ability to handle risk and probabilities diminishes with age ...